This report analyzes recent trends in the Williamson County residential real estate market, using MLS data from 2022 through January 2026. We focus on year-over-year comparisons, pricing trends, supply conditions, buyer activity, and seller behavior to understand where the market stands today and where it may be heading.
1. Year-over-Year Comparison: January 2026 vs. Prior Years
The latest available data is January 2026, which we compare against January 2025 and January 2024:
| Metric | Jan 2024 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $429,000 | $400,000 | $403,500 |
| Closed Sales | 607 | 623 | 536 |
| Months of Inventory | 2.6 | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| New Listings | 992 | 1,114 | 1,063 |
| Active Listings | 2,307 | 2,853 | 3,091 |
Key takeaways:
- Median prices remain below 2024 levels, but have stabilized compared to early 2025.
- Closed sales declined notably year-over-year, signaling reduced buyer activity.
- Inventory has eased from 2025 highs but remains well above early-2024 levels.
- Active listings continue to build, suggesting ongoing supply pressure.
2. Median Sale Price Trend: From Peak to Plateau
Williamson County prices peaked in spring 2022, when median prices exceeded $500,000, followed by a multi-year correction:
- 2022: Rapid appreciation driven by low rates and intense demand
- 2023: Clear price correction, with medians falling into the low-to-mid $400Ks
- 2024–2025: Prices largely range-bound between $410,000–$435,000
- January 2026: $403,500 — slightly higher than January 2025, but still well below 2022 highs
Trend interpretation:
The market appears to have transitioned from correction to price stabilization, with modest fluctuations rather than sharp declines or growth.
3. Months of Inventory: Shift Toward a Balanced Market
Months of inventory is one of the clearest indicators of market balance:
- 2022: Extremely tight conditions (often under 1 month)
- 2023: Gradual normalization (2.5–3.3 months)
- 2024: Clear buyer leverage emerges (3.0–4.4 months)
- 2025: Peaks above 5 months, approaching buyer-market territory
- January 2026: Improves to 3.5 months
Trend interpretation:
Inventory has pulled back from 2025 extremes, suggesting improved absorption, but the market remains far less competitive than during the pandemic-era boom.
4. Closed Sales Trend: Softer Buyer Demand
Closed sales volume tells a clear story:
- Strong transaction activity in 2022
- Partial recovery in 2023–2024
- Renewed softness in 2025
-
January 2026 closed sales (536) are:
- Down 14% year-over-year
- Down 12% compared to January 2024
Trend interpretation:
Affordability pressures and interest rates continue to limit buyer participation, even as inventory becomes more favorable.
5. New Listings Trend: Sellers Still Testing the Market
New listings activity remains relatively healthy:
- Listings surged in 2024–2025, contributing to rising inventory
-
January 2026 new listings (1,063) are:
- Slightly below January 2025
- Still higher than January 2024
Trend interpretation:
Sellers are active, but absorption has not kept pace, which explains why active listings continue to rise despite a moderation in new supply.
Conclusion: A Market in Rebalancing Mode
The Williamson County housing market has moved decisively away from the overheated conditions of 2022 and into a more normalized, balanced phase. Prices appear to be stabilizing, inventory is improving from recent highs, and sellers face a more competitive environment. Buyers benefit from increased choice and negotiating power, while sellers must price accurately and present homes strategically.
As we move further into 2026, the key variables to watch will be interest rates, buyer confidence, and absorption of existing inventory. For now, Williamson County reflects a market that is no longer correcting sharply — but also not yet positioned for rapid appreciation.
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