The first week of March has solidified a trend of “normalization” in the Austin-Area MLS. Buyers currently hold significant negotiating power as inventory continues to build.
- Inventory & Pricing: Active residential listings have climbed to 13,747, an 8.5% increase year-over-year. While the median sold price across the broader metro has softened slightly to $405,000 (down 2.4% year-over-year), the City of Austin’s urban core remains resilient, with median list prices actually edging up 1.3% to $572,450.+1
- Negotiation Trends: Approximately 68.5% of homes sold this past week closed below list price, with sellers accepting an average of 3% below asking.
- Middle-Class Shift: A new study released this week by SmartAsset revealed that the income threshold to be considered “middle class” in Austin has actually dipped slightly to a range of $60,287–$180,860, reflecting broader economic shifts in the region’s demographic makeup.
New Developments & Subdivisions
New construction is currently outperforming the resale market in Central Texas, shifting from “Softening” to an “Expansion” phase.
- New Braunfels: The Apple Seeds Apartments, a unique $12 million affordable housing project by the New Braunfels Food Bank and NB Housing Partners, is nearing completion with a summer debut expected.
- Leander/Crystal Falls: Commercial activity is surging along the Crystal Falls Parkway. The Square at Crystal Falls, a 27,000-square-foot boutique retail and dining destination, is on track for an early 2026 opening. Additionally, state filings this week for Gabriel’s Horn, a large-scale retail and childcare project, signal long-term growth for the Leander area.+2
- Buda/Kyle: MileStone Community Builders and David Weekley Homes have launched spring incentive events for several new subdivisions, including Persimmon (Buda), La Cima (San Marcos), and Leander Estates.
Infrastructure & Road Construction
Transportation improvements are heavily focused on the South Austin and Williamson County corridors this week:
- I-35 Capital Express South: TxDOT implemented major northbound main lane closures between Slaughter Lane and Ben White Boulevard this weekend as part of the $548 million overhaul. This project is vital for the long-term demography of South Austin.
- RM 2243 (Leander): Ground was officially broken this week on Phase 1a of the Ranch to Market 2243 project, which will widen the road to Garey Park to accommodate the massive residential growth in North Austin.+1
- Wimberley: Nighttime construction began on three new traffic signals at the intersection of RR 12 and Old Kyle Road to improve safety in the Hill Country village.
Corporate Expansion, Hiring, & Layoffs
The employment landscape—a primary driver for real estate—saw significant movement this week:
- Expansion (Southwest Airlines): Southwest Airlines officially opened its new crew base at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS) this week. The base is initially hiring 1,000 employees (pilots and flight attendants) with an average salary of $180,000, which will likely drive demand for mid-to-high-tier housing.
- Expansion (X3 Tradesmen): Construction staffing firm X3 Tradesmen launched operations in Austin this week to meet the demand for skilled labor in the region’s booming development sector.
- Layoffs (Oracle & Morgan Stanley): In a contrasting move, Austin-based Oracle reportedly began a round of job cuts impacting thousands of roles in its cloud and AI divisions. Additionally, Morgan Stanley announced it is laying off approximately 3% of its workforce, which includes staff in the Austin financial sector.+1
Mortgage Rate Watch
For home buyers in the Austin and Central Texas area, mortgage rates have shown remarkable stability as we move into the spring buying season. For highly qualified buyers—specifically those with a credit score of 760 or above—the financing environment remains competitive, with several lenders now offering rates that have finally dipped back into the high 5% range.
As of March 8, 2026, the average rates for a buyer with a 760+ FICO score are as follows:
| Loan Type | Interest Rate | Annual Percentage Rate (APR) |
| 30-Year Conventional Fixed | 5.875% | 6.045% |
| 15-Year Conventional Fixed | 5.375% | 5.658% |
| 30-Year Jumbo Loan | 5.875% | 6.061% |
| 7/6 Adjustable Rate (ARM) | 5.750% | 6.224% |
The Bottom Line
The Austin and Central Texas real estate market is in a state of high activity but low urgency. While major corporate expansions like Southwest Airlines bring high-earning residents to the area, tech-sector layoffs from giants like Oracle are creating a more balanced, less “frenzied” environment than in previous years. For buyers with strong credit, the current combination of high inventory and motivated sellers represents the best window of opportunity seen in the region since 2022.
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